Republicans Are Voting Early in California - But Let’s Not Mistake It For Victory Just Yet
As California’s hotly contested June primary approaches, early mail ballot returns offer a glimmer of hope for the blue state’s Republican Party. With roughly 7% of ballots returned statewide as of late May, Republicans are participating at a notably higher rate than Democrats: 8.3% versus 5.1%. It’s an improvement for the often beleaguered state party worth pointing out, especially when compared to the same point in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, where Republican turnout lagged significantly.
In a top-two primary system where all voters see the same ballot - also known as a jungle primary - these numbers matter. They reflect motivation in what would traditionally be one of the lowest-turnout elections on the calendar. California’s gubernatorial primaries often hover in the low-to-mid 30% range for final participation; however, amid Gavin Newsom’s term-limited departure, the race to reshape California’s post-Newsom future is wide open.
Voters face a choice between two leading Republicans - conservative commentator and Trump-backed Steve Hilton, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco - as well as a crowded field of Democrats, most notably former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Early voting turnout this cycle, like in those before it, reflects the realities of primary elections in California: they’re driven primarily by older, white, often conservative, homeowners - groups that have long favored mail ballots. And after a 2020 confidence dip driven by concerns over election integrity, Republicans are finally rebounding with a return to practical participation at roughly 1.6 times the rate of Democrats so far. In raw share terms, Republican ballots make up a higher portion of early returns this cycle than in 2022.
This is good news. In a state where Democrats hold a roughly 45%-25% registration advantage - with No Party Preference voters filling much of the rest - any sign of Republican energy is welcome. It suggests pragmatism: California Republicans are engaging the system as it exists rather than sitting out due to past skepticism of mail ballots, as we’ve seen in other states. In rural and inland counties with strong Republican leanings, this trend could help build momentum.
And downballot races are also playing a role in driving localized turnout, such as in Los Angeles, where former reality television star Spencer Pratt - whose home was destroyed in the horrific Palisades fire - is running in the city’s top-two mayoral primary. Pratt’s unfiltered, energetically raw style and personal story have drawn national attention. It proves just how compelling narratives can be in energizing voters even in low-profile contests.
However, Republicans should view these figures with cautious realism rather than premature celebration. This is not evidence of a seismic realignment or broad demographic breakthrough. Youth turnout remains anemic at around 2%, and Hispanic and Black participation trails White and Asian rates in these early returns. The patterns align with habitual voters in low-salience elections - not a sudden expansion to non-traditional early voters.
A blue shift is still likely as Election Day and later urban returns roll in. The final statewide primary turnout in 2022 was about 33%, and expectations for 2026 are similar. Overinterpreting early Republican strength risks complacency heading into November’s general election, where higher overall stakes and turnout will test the party’s ability to compete in a Democrat-dominated state.
Polling data indicates the primary will most likely advance one Republican and one Democrat into the November battle. That means the fight - and the work - isn’t done until then. California Republicans face structural headwinds. No Republican has won statewide office since 2006, and while the top-two system offers a theoretical path, registration realities and cross-party voting habits make sustained gains difficult.
The real prize is building sustainable momentum: stronger recruitment and clearer messaging on pocketbook issues like affordability, crime, and infrastructure.
The post-Newsom era presents a genuine opportunity. After years of one-party dominance, Californians are grappling with tax fatigue, high energy prices, and a homeless epidemic, among many other issues. A competitive gubernatorial race is the perfect trigger for accountability. And for their part, the race’s leading Republican candidates are positioning themselves as reformers emphasizing fiscal responsibility, public safety, and practical governance. If communicated effectively, it’s a message that could resonate beyond traditional bases to independents and disillusioned moderates.
But to capitalize, the party must seriously treat this primary as a diagnostic. Early voting participation is a strong start, particularly in overcoming the stigma of mail ballots. Scaling that engagement for November will require aggressive outreach that targets suburban and Central Valley areas, as well as coalitions that expand the electorate rather than relying solely on core supporters.
California’s challenges are just too profound to coast on preliminary data. Republicans have reason for measured optimism - higher relative motivation in a low-turnout environment signals resilience. Yet the path forward demands humility, strategy, and hard work to convert early promise into lasting influence.
The Golden State’s future hangs in the balance. Turning out voters is the first step; persuading a broader swath of the electorate is the mission that will ultimately define success or cement irrelevance for California Republicans.
Peter Giunta is a millennial voter and Republican strategist based in New York. He has appeared on Fox News and writes about the issues driving Republican voters from the youth perspective.